Naked, with a banana


So prudish German Chancellor Angela Merkel is desperate to ban the slightly saucy-sounding practice of naked short selling.

What's all the fuss? What are those excitable Germans on about?

Well, it being the exam season, and revision being underway, let's work through an example.

Let's imagine we're running a small business, the sole purpose of which is to buy and sell soft fruit. This week, we will be mostly dealing in bananas. Just as in the City, and in the Frankfurt markets, all we need to do to retire wealthy is to buy low, sell high.

Supposing CF and his friends think that the price of bananas might be about to go up Perhaps some photos of Lady Gaga doing something unspeakably erotic with a banana are about to be published, creating a huge demand for bananas among the young, trendy and sexually liberated.

In that case, we might pop out and buy a shed load of 'nanas at today's low prices, then flog them at the newly increased price when Gaga's 'Hello' magazine spread hits the newsstands.

But, on the other hand, supposing CF and his friends thought that the price of bananas might go down? Perhaps some other photos, of one of those Millband boys doing something unspeakably pathetic with a banana are about be published, ensuring that no right-thinking person will ever been seen holding a banana ever again.

In this case, the price is going down, and we can only buy low after we've sold high. Tricky. So what we'll do this time is enter into an agremeent with some poor fool who doesn't know about the Millband photo horror. We'd have to ask him to wait for the bananas until next week, because we can't buy 'em until the price goes low, and he'd have to agree on a price now - the higher current price - and stick to it.

So, we've got a deal. Someone has agreed to pay us a quid for the 'nana's next week, and we believe we'll be able to pick 'em up for 20p in a couple of days time. Buy low, sell high.

And that, in a nutshell - or in a banana skin - is 'short selling'. And because CF and his imaginary colleagues can't borrow or steal the bananas, they're selling them before they've bought 'em: that's 'naked short selling'

Of course, CF is taking a risk that these photos don't get published, or that they won't have the desired affect on the price. If the price of bananas actually goes up as a result of the boy Milliband endorsement, CF is going to lose money - he's obliged to deliver 'nanas at the agreed price, and has to buy them regardless of their actual price. But, hey, that's Casino Capitalism, right there, That's the risk CF takes, over and over again, to make a soft-fruit-related living,

Those of you who are still awake will note one obvious aspect of this: at no stage in the imaginary proceedings did anything CF did affect the bloody price of the bloody bananas. CF has made a profit, in both examples, by anticpating the price of bananas, and acting upon it, but he didn't actually change the price himself, did he?

Any more than those nasty hedge funds, and those eeevil bankers affected the stock valuations of banks or the value of the Euro.

So, what the fuck are you on about, Angela?

.

118 comments:

Uncle Marvo said...

And so we disagree. At last. Usury is detestable. Sorry, but it's a fact.

jimbo said...

Presumably if you were purchasing a noticeable percentage of all bananas available in the market (or shorting same) you would be affecting the price -- y'know, markets being affected by supply and demand, and all.

Captain Haddock said...

Odd that she should be a prude .. given that her one of her country's biggest exports is Porn (or so I'm told) ...

Anonymous said...

She has to find somebody else to blame whether it's their fault or not. She's a poitician.

Chuckles said...

So ve are not allowed to sell shares Vizout our Lederhosen?

Obnoxio The Clown said...

Uncle Marvo, where's the usury?

Constantly Furious said...

There is no usury here. And very little in "the markets" as a whole.

The markets grew because banana (etc.) buyers and sellers wanted to 'lock in' the prices they'd pay: this begat the commodities markets, which begat the Futures markets, which begat all other derivatives markets.

None of these work properly with solely banana (etc.) farmers and banana buyers - there's not enough of 'em, not that many harvests, not enough going on, not enough liquidity. Which is where the eevil banks step in, taking contrary positions and thereby providing liquidity.

And .. sorry, I can bore on this for hours. I'll stop. But the point is, there's no lending, no interest, no usury in this whatsoever. Even if you're trading in currency derivatives. Even if you're shorting the Euro.

Uncle Marvo said...

Wrong word. Making money out of money with no real product is what I meant. Wrong. You won't like it, because you're used to it. I don't do it. I guess I'm unique in that. Sorry, folks.

Constantly Furious said...

" I don't do it. I guess I'm unique in that"

Really? You don't have a pension, either paying now or building up ready to pay one day?

You don't have car insurance, that you expect to pay out, regardless of the amount of money required for repairs, and regardless of whether everyone else just claimed for the same snowstorm?

You don't expect to pay the roughly the same in Tesco's for orange juice regardless of whether Florida had a terrible winter or a mild one?

You don't have a savings account that pays interest?

You don't expect a mortgage company to lend you money to buy a house, even if they've already lent money to everyone in your street?

Unc', we agree on many things - on most things - but if you think that you are somehow personally detached from 'the markets', then (unless you live in a tent on your own allotment) - we have to disagree here.

.

Chris said...

And then there's Goldman Sachs...

Usury is detestable. Sorry, but it's a fact.

No, it isn't. It's a cost of doing business in a world where nothing is free. What you call usury is cost of access to a resource (in this case money) you otherwise wouldn't have. It's compensating the lender for his foregoing the direct use of the money himself, and for the risk of default by the borrower. Else why should the lender bother?

And the Bible only prohibits usury between fellow members of your tribe. Outsiders are fair game. ;)

Breaker said...

Close, but no cigar^banana.

If I guarantee to sell you bananas for 20p next week, I'm going to take a commission for that service, whether you buy that banana or not. If the price of bananas has moved against me, and you can buy bananas cheaper in the open market, you can walk away with no obligation. This is an Option.

If you sell bananas that you don't own, and enough of the other soft fruit sellers do so, you'll be part of a self fulfilling pact - liquidity in selling bananas today and tomorrow will dry up. So the price will drop. Thus naked short sellers drive the creative destruction forces in the market.

Prices will find their level.

If people want to buy bananas, they'll love the new low price but demand will drive the price back up. Maybe not to the price it was last week, but it'll certainly be increasing in cost.


That'll be the market again then.

Merkel's proposal is nothing more than a Canute like denial of reality.

Asian and North American desks are going to have a field week.

Uncle Marvo said...

"Unless you live in a tent on your own allotment".

CF, you really have NO idea how close you are with that one. So close you must KNOW :)

No pension.

Car insurance I can't say about for fear of ... can't say.

I squeeze my own oranges and DON'T, EVER, shop in TESCO unless there is absolutely no alternative. If there are no oranges at the right price I squeeze tomatoes.

No savings account. All my spare money goes to my kids.

No mortgage. No house.

Personally 'detached' from the markets.

Sorry, mate. We can disagree. Come over sometime, I'll show you how a victim of 13 years of Mandleson lives, and why. And explain how happy it makes me.

Keep blogging, still my no 1 (joint with CSR). But Anna Raccoon's coming up on the inside :)

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